How RIAs looked the winner at the Ritz Carlton in San Fran this week

Been chewing on that Markowtitz comment as to what his thoughts may be. Perhaps the video would clarify that.

I’m quite sure that most investors would agree that 2008-09 was a “Black Swan” event, or at least, not a non-event. Consider university endowments, for example. The major ones reported that diversification along the lines of Markowtiz’ theory failed, and there were many spending and other major disruptions that resulted.

In more detail, let’s examine the comment “there has never, for all intents and purposes, ever been a so-called Black Swan event in modern U.S. investing history…if you were long and non-leveraged.”

It depends on how you define a Black Swan event. For this purpose, let’s take the Black Swan author’s (Nassim Taleb) definition of an event deemed improbable yet causing massive consequences.

Consider an investor who, at the beginning of 1999, had a diversified stock portfolio worth $500,000. Based on Markowitz’ method of using expected mean returns, our investor used 9.2%, the historical capital markets history at that time, according to the Yale University Investments Office, to calculate his expected portfolio value for his 10-year investment horizon.

He was long and non-leveraged and the outcome was not a non-event. He expected to have a portfolio worth $1.2 million by the end of 2008.

Assuming he earned the average US equity market returns, his portfolio would be worth just over $400 thousand at the end of 2008. Such an outcome for a 10-year holding period was very improbable, given historical stock market returns. And this outcome, having 65% less than he expected, would cause massive consequences for him if he would be shifting his portfolio to “safe” investments and begin drawing it for his retirement.

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